Perubahan dan Kesinambungan Kebijakan-Kebijakan Ekonomi Makro: Kasus Indonesia dan Malaysia Tahun 1997-1999

Syamsul Bahri

Abstract


Dalam merespons krisis finansial Asia di tahun 1997-1999, pemerintah Indonesia dan Malaysia mengambil kebijakan-kebijakan ekonomi makro yang berbeda. Pemerintah Indonesia menaikkan suku bunga, mengurangi alokasi anggaran, melepaskan intervensi nilai tukar, dan meliberalisasi berbagai sektor ekonomi; sementara pemerintah Malaysia menurunkan suku bunga, melakukan ekspansi anggaran, mempertahankan intervensi nilai tukar, dan mengaplikasikan kontrol modal. Mengapa krisis yang sama direspons dengan kebijakan ekonomi makro berbeda? Mengapa krisis ekonomi tersebut diikuti dengan perubahan kebijakan ekonomi ke arah yang lebih liberal di Indonesia, sementara tidak di Malaysia? Dalam riset-riset sebelumnya, faktor paradigma ekonomi terkesan kurang diperhatikan sebagai penentu preferensi kebijakan pemerintah sewaktu krisis. Lewat penelitian ini, penulis berargumen bahwa perbedaan kebijakan ekonomi makro saat krisis disebabkan oleh perbedaan paradigma yang berkembang di masing-masing rezim pemerintahan sebelum krisis. Paradigma ekonomi membangun ekspektasi pemerintah terhadap kebijakan-kebijakan ekonomi yang diambil sebelum krisis. Kemunculan krisis finansial mendorong perubahan kebijakan ekonomi makro karena (i) krisis tersebut memfalsifikasi ekspektasi paradigma ekonomi yang dianut pemerintah dan (ii) pendukung paradigma alternatif berhasil masuk ke dalam proses perumusan kebijakan ekonomi makro untuk mendelegitimasi paradigma lama, kemudian melembagakan paradigma baru. Dua faktor ini hadir di Indonesia, namun tidak di Malaysia.

Keywords


paradigma ekonomi; kebijakan-kebijakan ekonomi makro; institusionalisme baru; krisis finansial Asia

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.7454/jp.v2i2.79

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