The Incumbent’s Curse, Party Institutionalization, and Competitive Factionalism in the Candidacy for South Halmahera Election in 2020
This article investigates the incumbent’s curse in the candidacy process in Indonesia by using Bahrain Kasuba’s failure in the running for re-election in South Halmahera in 2020 as its case study. This study diverges from the traditional scholarship on the incumbent curse, which focuses on the election stage. Instead, we focus on the candidacy stage. Candidacy processes and elections are two different political events. Both have differences in three things: their victory targets, mechanisms, and political processes. These three differences urge the study of the effect of incumbency on candidacy, an important aspect to analyze. This article uses the party institutionalization and competitive factionalism frameworks to analyze how both factors affect the incumbent's candidacy. We employed a case study method by conducting in-depth interviews with Bahrain Kasuba’s winning team and their competitors and exploring secondary data from media coverage and relevant literature. The study’s findings indicate that Bahrain Kasuba’s failure in the candidacy was caused by institutional factors, namely the weakness of party institutionalization and factionalism. In this case, the weakness of party institutionalization is characterized by the absence of ideological ties between parties and cadres and the lack of the party's solidity as an organization. Meanwhile, factionalism occurred within parties and the Kasuba family, a dominant political elite in North Maluku. The factionalism in these two arenas placed Bahrain Kasuba in conflict with political party elites, which dictate the outcomes of candidacies.
Aji, Wisnu. P. 2020. “Faksionalisme dalam Pemilihan Kepala Daerah: Studi Kasus Kekalahan Petahana dalam Pilkada Kabupaten Bantul 2015”. Undergraduate Thesis, Universitas Gadjah Mada. Retreived from http://etd.repository.ugm.ac.id/penelitian/detail/196138
Amsari, Feri. 2019. “Menjerakan Pelaku “Uang Mahar” Pemilu”. Jurnal Anti Korupsi 5 (June): 97–110. doi: 10.32697/integritas.v5i1.412
Ansolabehere, S., and James M. Snyder. 2002. “The Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Elections: An Analysis of State and Federal Offices, 1942–2000.” Election Law Journal 1 (June): 315–38.
Aspinal, Edward, and Mada Sukmajati. 2015. Politik Uang di Indonesia: Patronase dan Klientelisme pada Pemilu Legislatif 2014. Polgov: Yogyakarta
Aspinal, Edward, and Ward Berenschot. 2019. Democracy for Sale: Pemilu, Klientelisme dan Negara di Indonesia. Jakarta: Yayasan Pustaka Obor Indonesia
Boucek, Francoise. 2009. “Rethinking Factionalism: Typologies, Intra-Party Dynamics, and Three Faces of Factionalism.” Party Politics 15 (June), 455-85. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1354068809334553
Buehler, Michael, and Paige Tan. 2007. “Party-Candidate Relationships in Indonesian Local Politics: A Case Study of the 2005 Regional Elections in Gowa, South Sulawesi Province.” Indonesia 84 (October): 41–69. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40376429
Deni, Aji. 2020. “Faksionalisasi Partai-Partai Politik di Maluku Utara (Studi Kasus Terhadap PPP, PAN, dan PKS)”. Doctor Thesis, Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta. Retrieved from http://repository.umy.ac.id/bitstream/handle/123456789/35821/1.%20Sampul.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Epstein, Daniel J. 2009. “Clientelism Versus Ideology: Problems of Party Development in Brazil.” Party Politics 15 (May): 335–55. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1354068809102250
Fajar. 2020. "Interview with loyalist of Bahrain Kasuba." Interview by Krisna Rettob. November 26, 2020.
Gerring, John. 2016. Case Study Research: Principles and Practices (Second Edition). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Hadiz, Vedi R. 2018. “Imagine All the People? Mobilising Islamic Populism for Right-Wing Politics in Indonesia.” Journal of Contemporary Asia 48 (February): 566–83. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2018.1433225
Hazan, Reuven Y., and Rahat, Gideon. 2010. Democracy Within Parties: Candidate Selection Methods and Their Political Consequences. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Ikram. 2021. "Interview with the Head of Bappilu PKPI's party." Interview by Krisna Rettob. February 4, 2021.
Khabibi, Ikhwanul. 2016. “Hanya Selisih 18 Suara, Pilkada Halmahera Selatan Harus Dihitung Ulang.” Detik.com, January 23. https://news.detik.com/berita/d-3124668/hanya-selisih-18-suara-pilkada-halmahera-selatan-harus-dihitung-ulang
Klasnja, Marko, and Rocio Titiunik. 2013. “Incumbency in Weak Party System: Evidence from Brazil.” Unpublished Manuscript University of Michigan. Retrieved from http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1063.4712&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Klasnja, Marko. 2016. “Increasing Rents and Incumbency Disadvantage.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 28 (June): 225–65. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0951629815586873
Klasnja, Marko. 2017. “The Incumbency Curse: Weak Parties, Term Limits and Unfulfilled Accountability.” American Political Science Review 111 (February): 129–48. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055416000575
Kumparan.com. 2020. “Pengamat Politik: Dukungan Gubernur terhadap Petahana Halsel Bentuk Kekecewaan.” Kumparan.com, Augst 13. Retrieved from https://kumparan.com/ceritamalukuutara/pengamat-politik-dukungan-gubernur-terhadap-petahana-halsel-bentuk-kekecewaan-1tzkh1W9Kfk
Lay, Cornelis, Hasrul Hanif, Ridwan, and Noor Rohman. 2017. “The Rise of Uncontested Elections in Indonesia: Case Studies of Pati and Jayapura.” Contemporary Southeast Asia 39 (December): 427–48. https://www.jstor.org/stable/44684049
Lee, David S. 2008. "Randomized Experiments from Non-Random Selection in the U.S. House Elections." Journal of Econometrics 142 (February): 675–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.004
M. Nur, Diana. 2020. "Interview with Bahrain Kasuba's Winning Team Member." Interview by Krisna Rettob. November 25, 2020.
Mainwaring, Scott, and Timothy Scully. 1995. Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Malut Kabar Daerah. 2020. “Pendukung BK-Masih Demo KPU Halmahera Selatan.” September 15. Retrieved from https://malut.kabardaerah.com/2020/09/15/pendukung-bk-masih-demo-kpu-halmahera-selatan/
Moore, Aaron A., R. M. McGregor, and Laura B. Stephenson. 2015. “Paying Attention and the Incumbency Effect: Voting Behavior in The 2014 Toronto Municipal Election.” International Political Science Review 35 (November): 85–98. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0192512115616268
Muksin, Dafrin, Titin Purwaningsih, and Achmad Nurmandi. 2019. “Praktik Dinasti Politik di Aras Lokal Pasca Reformasi: Studi Kasus Abdul Gani Kasuba dan Ahmad Hidayat Mus pada Pilkada Provinsi Maluku Utara.” Jurnal Wacana Politik 4 (Oktober): 133–144. https://doi.org/10.24198/jwp.v4i2.25336
Mulyadi, S. Awal. 2020. "Interview with Bahrain Kasuba's Winning Team Member." Interview by Krisna Rettob. November 27, 2020.
Nurlinah, Rizkika L. Darwin, and H. Haryanto. 2019. “Incumbency Disadvantages and Populism in Indonesian Local Elections: Case Studies of Banda Aceh and Takala.” PCD Journal 7 (June): 57–82.
Prasetyo, Wegik. 2019. “Optimalisasi Bekerjanya Pengungkapan Dana Kampanye sebagai Strategi Pencegahan Politik Uang.” INTEGRITAS Jurnal Antikorupsi 5 (June): 15-27. doi: https://doi.org/10.32697/integritas.v5i1.336
Purwaningsih, Titin, and Bambang E. C. Widodo. 2020. "The Interplay of Incumbency, Political Dynasty and Corruption in Indonesia: Are Political Dynasties The Cause of Corruption in Indonesia?." Revista UNISCI 53 (May): 158–176. DOI:10.31439/UNISCI-89
Sartori, Giovanni. 2005. Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Seeberg, Merete B., Michael Wahman, and Svend E. Skaaning. 2018. “Candidate Nomination, Intra-Party Democracy, and Election Violence in Africa.” Democratization 25 (January): 959–97. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2017.1420057
Svolik, Milan W. 2013. “Learning to Love Democracy: Electoral Accountability and the Success of Democracy.” American Journal of Political Science 57 (July): 685–702. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23496647
Syarif, Rosiana. 2020. “Member of Gerindra Party of South Halmahera”. Interview by Krisna Rettob. December 3, 2020
Titiunik, Rocio. 2011. “Incumbency Advantage in Brazil: Evidence from Municipal Mayor Elections.” University of Michigan Working Paper. Retrieved from https://jonnyphillips.github.io/FLS6415/Class_7/Tituinik_2011_RDD.pdf
Utama, Felldy. 2020. “5 Petahana Gagal Maju, Mirna Anisa Cuma Bisa Pasrah.” Inews.id, September 8. Retrieved from https://www.inews.id/news/nasional/5-petahana-gagal-maju-pilkada-mirna-annisa-cuma-bisa-pasrah
Wiandi, Juwansyah. 2019. “Analisis Kekalahan Petahana (Studi Kekalahan Basuki Tjahaja Purnama-Djarot Saiful Hidayat pada Pilkada DKI Jakarta Tahun 2017).” Undergraduate Thesis, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta. Retrieved from https://repository.uinjkt.ac.id/dspace/bitstream/123456789/46374/2/JUWANSAH%20WIANDI-FISIP.pdf
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2022 Eko Bagus Sholihin, Krisna Rettob, David Efendi