Explaining the Effects of Political Islam and Preacher toward Prabowo’s Electoral Dominance: Evidence from Pekanbaru and Kampar
Ulama in Indonesia have critical roles not only in religious teachings but also in socio-political affairs. The literature on voter behavior in many countries shows that religious leaders have critical roles in directing the political orientation and behavior of their followers. This article aims to examine the influence of Ustadz Abdul Somad (UAS) toward a significant increase of Prabowo's vote share in the 2019 presidential election in Riau Province. Although Prabowo lost to Jokowi with a large margin in the last election, he was able to claim electoral victory in 13 out of 34 provinces—one of them is Riau. We assume that Prabowo gained the electoral advantage over his rival in Riau due to electoral support from UAS that ultimately gave significant effect toward a sharp increase for his votes compared to the 2014 election. We apply the quantitative method to examine the phenomenon. The data are mainly collected through a survey conducted in the two most populous regions in Riau—Pekanbaru and Kampar Regency. Our study confirms that UAS has a significant effect on Muslim voters' orientation and behavior to vote for Prabowo in the last presidential election. Other findings in this study are also in line with previous studies suggesting a critical influence of religion, particularly Islam, in driving Muslim’s political behavior. The contribution of our study is to enrich the literature on voter behavior in Indonesian politics by examining the influence of political support from a popular preacher—UAS—on the distribution of electoral support for presidential candidates in the 2019 election. This is further strengthened by the presence and role of ulama figures who give their support to each presidential candidate in the political contestation in 2019.
Abdulsalam, Husein. 2018. “Burhanuddin Muhtadi: Ideologi Parpol, Bukan Jokowi atau Oposisi, tapi Pancasila vs Islam.” Tirto.id, June 25. https://tirto.id/cMUB.
Akbarzadeh, Shahram, ed. 2012. Routledge Handbook of Political Islam. New York: Routledge.
Arafat, MY. 2019. “Abdul Somad dan Dakwah Islam Pinggiran.” DetikNews, August 29. https://news.detik.com/kolom/d-4685245/abdul-somad-dan-dakwah-islam-pinggiran.
Aspinall, Edward, Diego Fossati, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, and Eve Warburton. 2018. “Mapping the Indonesian Political Spectrum.” New Mandala, April 24. https://www.newmandala.org/mapping-indonesian-political-spectrum/.
Aspinall, Edward, and Marcus Mietzner. 2019. “Indonesia’s Democratic Paradox: Competitive Elections amidst Rising Illiberalism.” Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 55 (3): 295–317. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2019.1690412.
Aspinall, Edward, Marcus Mietzner, and Dirk Tomsa, ed. 2015. The Yudhoyono Presidency: Indonesia’s Decade of Stability and Stagnation, Singapore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
Ayoob, Mohammed. 2004. “Political Islam: Image and Reality.” World Policy Journal 21 (3): 1–14. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40210231.
Ayoob, Mohammed. 2009. The Many Faces of Political Islam: Religion and Politics in the Muslim World. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.189346.
Azanella, Luthfia A. 2019. “Ini Perbandingan Suara Jokowi dan Prabowo pada Pemilu 2019 dan 2014.” Kompas.com, April 18. https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2019/04/18/17540551/ini-perbandingan-suara-jokowi-dan-prabowo-pada-pemilu-2019-dan-2014.
Baswedan, Anies R. 2004. “Political Islam in Indonesia: Present and Future Trajectory.” Asian Survey 44 (5): 669–90. http://www.jstor.org/10.1525/as.2004.44.5.669.
Bazzi, Samuel, Gabriel Koehler-Derrick, and Benjamin Marx. 2020. “The Institutional Foundations of Religious Politics: Evidence from Indonesia.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 135 (2): 845–911. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz038.
Bokhari, Kamran, and Farod Senzai. 2013. Political Islam in the Age of Democratization. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Bourchier, David M. 2019. “Two Decades of Ideological Contestation in Indonesia: From Democratic Cosmopolitanism to Religious Nationalism.” Journal of Contemporary Asia. 49 (5): 713–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2019.1590620.
Boussalis, Constantine, Travis G. Coan, and Mirya R. Holman. 2020. “Political Speech in Religious Sermons.” Politics and Religion: 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755048320000334.
Bubalo, Anthony, Greg Fealy, and Whit Mason. 2008. Zealous Democrats: Islamism and Democracy in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey. Sydney: Lowy Institute for International Affairs.
Case, William. 2016. “Profiles in Populism: Southeast Asia.” Comparative Politics Newsletter 26 (2): 19–24.
Denoeux, Guilain. 2002. “The Forgotten Swamp: Navigating Political Islam.” Middle East Policy 9 (2), 56–81. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4967.00057.
Djupe, Paul A, and Cristopher A. Gilbert. 2002. “The Political Voice of Clergy.” Journal of Politics 64 (2): 596–609. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2691864.
Djupe, Paul A, and Amy E. Smith. 2019. “Experimentation in the Study of Religion and Politics.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.990.
Esposito, John L, and Emad El-Din Shahin, ed. 2013. The Oxford Handbook of Islam and Politics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Fachrudin, Azis Anwar. 2019. “Jokowi and NU: The View from the Pesantren.” New Mandala, April 11. https://www.newmandala.org/jokowi-and-nu-the-view-from-the-pesantren/.
Fealy, Greg, and Robin Bush. 2014. “The Political Decline of Traditional Ulama in Indonesia: The State, Umma and Nahdlatul Ulama.” Asian Journal of Social Science 42 (5): 536–60. https://doi.org/10.1163/15685314-04205004.
Fealy, Greg, and Saily White, ed. 2008. Expressing Islam: Religious and Politics in Indonesia. Singapore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
Fionna, Ulla. 2016. “The Trap of Pop-Charisma for the Institutionalization of Indonesia’s Post-Suharto Parties.” Asian Journal of Political Science 24 (1): 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/02185377.2015.1136227.
Fossati, Diego. 2019. “The Resurgence of Ideology in Indonesia: Political Islam, Aliran and Political Behaviour.” Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs 38 (2): 119–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1868103419868400.
Fossati, Diego, Edward Aspinall, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, and Eve Warburton. 2020. “Ideological Representation in Clientelistic Democracies: The Indonesian Case.” Electoral Studies 63: 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2019.102111
Fossati, Diego, and Marcus Mietzner. 2019. “Analyzing Indonesia’s Populist Electorate: Demographic, Ideological, and Attitudinal Trends.” Asian Survey 59 (5): 769–94. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2019.59.5.769.
Freedman, Michael. 2020. “Vote with Your Rabbi: The Electoral Effects of Religious Institutions in Israel.” Electoral Studies 68: 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102241.
Fuller, Graham E, and Ralph E. Lapp. 2004. The Future of Political Islam. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Glazier, Rebecca A. 2018. “Acting for God? Types and Motivations of Clergy Political Activity.” Politics and Religion 11 (4): 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755048318000305.
Grewal, Sharan, Amaney A. Jamal, Tarek Masoud, and Elizabeth R. Nugent. 2019. “Poverty and Divine Rewards: The Electoral Advantage of Islamist Political Parties.” American Journal of Political Science 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12447.
Grzymala-Busse, Anna. 2012. “Why Comparative Politics Should Take Religion (More) Seriously.” Annual Review of Political Science 15 (1): 421–42. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-033110-130442.
Hadiz, Vedi R. 2014. “A New Islamic Populism and the Contradictions of Development.” Journal of Contemporary Asia 44 (1): 125–43. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2013.832790.
Hadiz, Vedi R. 2018. “Imagine All the People? Mobilising Islamic Populism for Right-Wing Politics in Indonesia.” Journal of Contemporary Asia 48 (4): 566–83. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2018.1433225.
Hamayotsu, Kikue. 2011. “The End of Political Islam? A Comparative Analysis of Religious Parties in the Muslim Democracy of Indonesia.” Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs 3(3): 133–59. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F186810341103000305.
Hamid, Abdul. 2013. “Memetakan Aktor Politik Lokal Banten Pasca Orde Baru: Studi Kasus Kiai dan Jawara di Banten.” Politika: Jurnal Ilmu Politik 1 (2): 32–45. https://doi.org/10.14710/politika.1.2.2010.32-45.
Hasan, Noorhaidi. 2009a. “Islamist Party, Electoral Politics and Da’wa Mobilization among Youth: The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) in Indonesia.” Journal of Indonesian Islam 6 (1): 17–47. https://doi.org/10.15642/ JIIS.2012.6.1.17-47.
Hasan, Noorhaidi. 2009b. “The Making of Public Islam: Piety, Agency, and Commodification on the Landscape of the Indonesian Public Sphere.” Contemporary Islam 3 (3): 229–50. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11562-009-0096-9.
Hashemi, Nader. 2013. “Islam and Democracy.” In The Oxford Handbook of Islam and Politics, eds. John L. Esposito and Emad El-Din Shahin, 68–88. New York: Oxford University Press.
Hatina, Meir. 2010. ‘Ulama’, Politics, and the Public Sphere: An Egyptian Perspective. Salt Lake City: The University of Utah Press.
Howell, Julia Day. 2008. “Modulations of Active Piety: Professors and Televangelists as Promoters of Indonesian ‘Sufisme’.” In Expressing Islam: Religious and Politics in Indonesia, eds. Greg Fealy and Saily White, 40–62. Singapore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
Ichwan, Moch Nur. 2005. “Ulama, State and Politics: Majelis Ulama Indonesia after Suharto.” Islamic Law and Society 12 (1): 45–72. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3399292.
Khatab, Sayed, and Gary Bouma. 2007. Democracy in Islam. New York: Routledge.
Kholid, Idham. 2019. “Bertemu Prabowo, Ustaz Somad Lega Ungkap Bisikan Hasil 5 Kali Mimpi Ulama.” DetikNews, April 11. https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4506822/bertemu-prabowo-ustaz-somad-lega-ungkap-bisikan-hasil-5-kali-mimpi-ulama.
Komisi Pemilihan Umum. 2019. “Hasil Hitung Suara Pemilu Presiden & Wakil Presiden RI 2019.” https://pemilu2019.kpu.go.id/#/ppwp/hitung-suara/.
Kusmayadi, Edi, Subhan Agung, and M. Ali Andrias. 2016. “Model Kepemimpinan Kyai: Studi Peran Kyai dalam Pergeseran Perilaku Politik Massa NU PKB dan PPP.” Politika: Jurnal Ilmu Politik 7 (2): 21–33. https://doi.org/10.14710/politika.7.2.2016.21-33.
Lembaga Survei Indonesia. 2015. “Laporan Rilis Survei “Partai Politik di Mata Publik.” Lsi.or.id, January 25. http://www.lsi.or.id/riset/436/Rilis-LSI-Partai-Politik-diMata-Publik.
Liddle, R. William, and Saiful Mujani. 2007. “Leadership, Party, and Religion: Explaining Voting Behavior in Indonesia.” Comparative Political Studies 40 (7): 832–57. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414006292113.
Liddle, R. William, and Saiful Mujani. 2010. “Indonesia: Personalities, Parties, and Voters.” Journal of Democracy, 21 (2): 35–49. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.0.0160.
Lindsey, Tim. 2012. “Monopolising Islam: The Indonesian Ulama Council and State Regulation of the ‘Islamic Economy’.” Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 48 (2): 253–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2012.694157.
Machmudi, Yon. 2014. “Preserving Kyai Authority in Modern Society: A Case Study of Pesantren Cidahu, Pandeglang, Banten.” Wacana 15 (2): 336–50. https://doi.org/10.17510/wacana.v15i2.407.
March, Andrew F. 2015. “Political Islam: Theory.” Annual Review of Political Science 18, 103–123. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-082112-141250.
Margolis, Michele F. 2017. “How Politics Affects Religion: Partisanship, Socialization, and Religiosity in America.” Journal of Politics 80 (1): 30–43. https://doi.org/10.1086/694688.
McBeth, John. 2018. “Turning to Religion: Indonesia’s Widodo Plays the Islamic Card.” Global Asia. https://www.globalasia.org/v13no3/cover/turning-to-religion-indonesias-widodo-plays-the-islamic-card_john-mcbeth.
McClendon, Gwyneth, and Rachel B. Riedl. 2021. “Using Sermons to Study Religions’ Influence on Political Behavior.” Comparative Political Studies 54 (4): 779–822. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414020957667.
McCoy, Jennifer, Tahmina Rahman, and Murat Somer. 2018. “Polarization and the Global Crisis of Democracy: Common Patterns, Dynamics, and Pernicious Consequences for Democratic Polities.” American Behavioral Scientist 62 (1): 16–42. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764218759576.
Mietzner, Marcus, and Burhanuddin Muhtadi. 2018. “Explaining the 2016 Islamist Mobilisation in Indonesia: Religious Intolerance, Militant Groups and the Politics of Accommodation.” Asian Studies Review 48 (3): 479–97. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357823.2018.1473335.
Mietzner, Marcus, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, and Rizka Halida. 2018. “Entrepreneurs of Grievance: Drivers and Effects of Indonesia’s Islamist Mobilization.” Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences of Southeast Asia 174 (2–3): 159–87. https://doi.org/10.1163/22134379-17402026.
Mietzner, Marcus. 2015a. “Indonesia in 2014: Jokowi and the Repolarization of Post-Soeharto Politics.” In Southeast Asian Affairs 2015, edited by Daljit Singh, 117–38. Singapore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
Mietzner, Marcus. 2015b. Reinventing Asian Populism: Jokowi’s Rise, Democracy and Political Contestation in Indonesia. Policy Studies 72. Honolulu: East-West Center.
Mietzner, Marcus. 2020. “Rival Populisms and the Democratic Crisis in Indonesia: Chauvinists, Islamists and Technocrats.” Australian Journal of International Affairs 74 (4): 420–38. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2020.1725426.
Mostarom, Tuty R. 2014. “The Singapore Ulama: Religious Agency in the Context of a Strong State.” Asian Journal of Social Science 42 (5): 561–83. https://doi.org/10.1163/15685314-04205005.
Mouline, Nabil. 2014. The Clerics of Islam: Religious Authority and Political Power in Saudi Arabia. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Muhtadi, Burhanuddin. 2019. Vote Buying in Indonesia: The Mechanics of Electoral Bribery. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-6779-3.
Mujani, Saiful. 2019. “Explaining Religio-Political Tolerance among Muslims: Evidence from Indonesia.” Studia Islamika 26 (2): 319–51. https://doi.org/10.15408/sdi.v26i2.11237.
Mujani, Saiful. 2020. “Religion and Voting Behavior: Evidence from the 2017 Jakarta Gubernatorial Election.” Al-Jami’ah: Journal of Islamic Studies 58 (2): 419–50. https://doi.org/10.14421/ajis.2020.582.419-450.
Mujani, Saiful, and R. William Liddle. 2015. “Indonesia’s Democratic Performance: A Popular Assessment.” Japanese Journal of Political Science 16 (2): 210–26. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1468109915000067.
Mujani, Saiful, R. William Liddle, and Kuskridho Ambardi. 2011. Kuasa Rakyat: Analisis tentang Perilaku Pemilih dalam Pemilihan Legislatif dan Presiden Indonesia Pasca-Orde Baru. Bandung: Mizan Media Utama.
Mujani, Saiful, R. William Liddle, and Kuskridho Ambardi. 2018. Voting Behavior in Indonesia since Democratization: Critical Democrats. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Nashir, Haedar, Zuly Qodir, Achmad Nurmandi, Hasse Jubba, and Mega Hidayati. 2019. “Muhammadiyah’s Moderation Stance in the 2019 General Election: Critical Views from Within.” Al-Jami’ah: Journal of Islamic Studies 57 (1): 1–24. https://doi.org/10.14421/ajis.2019.571.1-24.
Nasir, Mohamad A. 2014. “The ʿUlamāʾ, Fatāwā and Challenges to Democracy in Contemporary Indonesia.” Islam and Christian–Muslim Relations 25 (4): 489–505. https://doi.org/10.1080/09596410.2014.926598.
Nuraniyah, Nava. 2020. ‘Divided Muslims: Militant Pluralism, Polarisation and Democratic Backsliding.” In Democracy in Indonesia: From Stagnation to Regression?, eds. Thomas Power and Eve Warburton, 81–100. Singapore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
Omelicheva, Mariya Y., and Ranya Ahmed. 2018. “Religion and Politics: Examining The Impact of Faith on Political Participation.” Religion, State, and Society 46 (1): 4–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/09637494.2017.1363345.
Osman, Mohamed N. M. 2012. “The Religio-Political Activism of Ulama in Singapore.” Indonesia and the Malay World 40 (116): 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/13639811.2011.648990.
Pepinsky, Thomas B. 2019. “Religion, Ethnicity, and Indonesia’s 2019 Presidential Election.” New Mandala, May 29. https://www.newmandala.org/religion-ethnicity-and-indonesias-2019-presidential-election/.
Pepinsky, Thomas B., R. William Liddle, and Saiful Mujani. 2012. “Testing Islam’s Political Advantage: Evidence from Indonesia.” American Journal of Political Science 56 (3) 584–600. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00570.x
Pepinsky, Thomas B., R. William Liddle, and Saiful Mujani. 2018. Piety and Public Opinion: Understanding Indonesian Islam. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Pierret, Thomas. 2013. Religion and State in Syria: The Sunni Ulama from Coup to Revolution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Power, Thomas, and Eve Warburton. 2020. Democracy in Indonesia: From Stagnation to Regression? Singapore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
Pribadi, Yanwar. 2018. Islam, State and Society in Indonesia: Local Politics in Madura. New York: Routledge.
Roose, Joshua M. 2017. “Political Islam.” In The Wiley Blackwell Encyclopedia of Social Theory, edited by Bryan S. Turner, 1–3. Hoboken: Wiley-Blackwell. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118430873.est0277.
Saat, Norshahril. 2016. “Theologians “Moralising” Indonesia?: The Case of the Post-New Order Ulama Council of Indonesia (MUI).” Asian Journal of Social Science 44 (4–5): 546–70. https://doi.org/10.1163/15685314-04404005.
Saat, Norshahril. 2018. The State, Ulama and Islam in Malaysia and Indonesia. Amsterdam University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt1zxxxn1.
Saif, Mashal. 2020. The ’Ulama in Contemporary Pakistan: Contesting and Cultivating an Islamic Republic. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Scott, Rachel M. 2012. “What Might the Muslim Brotherhood Do with al-Azhar? Religious Authority in Egypt.” Die Welt Des Islams 52 (2): 131–65. https://doi.org/10.1163/157006012X641674.
Shofia, Naila, and Thomas B. Pepinsky. 2019. “Measuring the ‘NU Effect’ in Indonesia’s Election.” New Mandala, July 1. https://www.newmandala.org/measuring-the-nu-effect-in-indonesias-election/.
Slama, Martin. 2019. “Jokowi and the Preachers: An Ambiguous Pre-Election Relationship.” New Mandala, April 8. https://www.newmandala.org/jokowi-and-the-preachers-an-ambiguous-pre-election-relationship/.
Smith, Amy E. 2019. Religion and Brazilian Democracy: Mobilizing the People of God. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108699655.
Sudrajat, and Agus Setyadi. 2017. “Ustaz Abdul Somad, Sang Phenomenon dari Tanah Melayu.” DetikNews, December 30. https://news.detik.com/berita/d-3791542/ustaz-abdul-somad-sang-phenomenon-dari-tanah-melayu.
Sutrisno, Elvan. D. 2018. “Hanum Rais Serukan #SomadEffect Everywhere.” DetikNews, August 3. https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4148269/hanum-rais-serukan-somadeffect-everywhere.
Tanuwidjaja, Sunny. 2010. “Political Islam and Islamic Parties in Indonesia: Critically Assessing the Evidence of Islam’s Political Decline.” Contemporary Southeast Asia 32 (1): 29–49. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41288802.
Tanuwidjaja, Sunny. 2012. “PKS in Post-Reformasi Indonesia: Catching the Catch-All and Moderation Wave.” South East Asia Research 20 (4): 533–49. https://doi.org/10.5367/sear.2012.0127.
Tessler, Mark. 2010. “Religion, Religiosity and the Place of Islam in Political Life: Insights from the Arab Barometer Surveys.” Middle East Law and Governance 2 (2): 221–52. https://doi.org/10.1163/187633710X500748.
Tomsa, Dirk. 2018. “Regime Resilience and Presidential Politics in Indonesia.” Contemporary Politics 24 (3): 266–85. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2017.1413502.
Ufen, Andreas. 2008. “From Aliran to Dealignment: Political Parties in Post-Suharto Indonesia.” South East Asia Research 16 (1): 5–41.
Ufen, Andreas. 2017. “Party Presidentialization in Post-Suharto Indonesia.” Contemporary Politics 24 (3): 306–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2017.1413499.
Warburton, Eve. 2020a. “Deepening Polarization and Democratic Decline in Indonesia.” In Political Polarization in South and Southeast Asia: Old Division, New Dangers, eds. Thomas Carothers and Andrew O’Donohue, 25–40. Carnegie Endowement for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/08/18/political-polarization-in-south-and-southeast-asia-old-divisions-new-dangers-pub-82430.
Warburton, Eve. 2020b. “How Polarised Is Indonesia and Why Does It Matter?” In Democracy in Indonesia: From Stagnation to Regression?, eds. Thomas Power and Eve Warburton, 63–80. Singapore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
Winarni, Leni. 2014. “The Political Identity of Ulama in the 2014 Indonesian Presidential Election.” Al-Jami’ah: Journal of Islamic Studies 52 (2): 257–69. https://doi.org/10.14421/ajis.2014.522.257-269.
Yumitro, Gonda. 2013. “Partai Islam dalam Dinamika Demokrasi di Indonesia.” Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik 17 (1): 35–50. https://doi.org/10.22146/jsp.10892.
Zaman, Muhammad Qasim. 2002. The Ulama in Contemporary Islam: Custodians of Change. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7rh2s.
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2021 Andhik Beni Saputra, Azhari Setiawan, Hesti Herpina